If analysts and investors have spent years overlooking Europe, we think they’d be wise to start looking it over once again.
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Stocks look pricey
Today, stocks look expensive. Moreover, when we review what would have to happen for the model’s estimate of fair value to rise to where the stock market is today, it looks even more likely that stocks will face headwinds in the year ahead.
The structural shift that wasn’t
I have long been arguing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to keep interest rates higher for longer, and markets seem to be coming around to the idea.
Leaning into real assets
Commodities, which are highly sensitive to global economic growth, have been weighed down by elevated recession risks
Still Overvalued
The US economy is still absorbing the massive money printing during COVID, but this is almost over.
Central banks step into potential policy error territory
Hawkish stances risk overtightening and causing recession
Commodities: Taking the Long View
Recent volatility aside, multiple forces could support the commodity asset class over the long term.
India picks up pace amid global slowdown
India is set to deliver strong economic growth while structural reforms in areas such as real estate and banking are starting to bear fruit.
Age of AI
The “Age of AI” is fast approaching, and we believe that these changes will make AI integral to everyday life, interwoven in how we interact with computers.
Is the recession threat dead?
Lately, it’s been easy to see the optimism. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up 15% so far this year (not including dividends) and up 23% (again, without dividends) versus the lowest bear-market close back in October.
Interest rate increases and defined benefit pension schemes
While Defined Contribution (DC) pension savers have likely seen a drop in the value of their pensions over the last 18 months, Defined Benefit (DB) pension schemes have had an altogether different experience.
Three themes structurally changing Frontier Markets
As political tensions heighten and China stops being the low cost manufacturing base it once was, many global corporates are beginning to look elsewhere to relocate manufacturing.
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