The press conference following the December Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting raises one interesting question: Why did Fed Chairman Jerome Powell feel it necessary to supercharge an already-strong financial markets rally? Reassuring US inflation data had already bolstered market bullishness going into the meeting, with a significant upswing in equity prices and 10-year Treasury … [Read more...] about Miracle on 20th Street
Because the emerging market universe is made up of countries at different stages of their economic and market cycles,there will be times when an individual country is doing well when many others are struggling. That has been particularly true of India in recent quarters, but we have a smaller overweight to the market than to other countries where we see strong top-down … [Read more...] about Keeping Positive but Realistic
For the first time in roughly fifteen years, interest rates in the United States are about right. In economics, we call it the “neutral” or “natural” rate. The Taylor Rule says rates should be higher, and our model that uses nominal GDP growth (real GDP plus inflation) says the same thing. But both these models rely on data that is still distorted by COVID. A simpler … [Read more...] about What Should the Fed Do? How About Nothing?
After an AI-propelled surge in equities this summer, the change in seasons has brought choppier conditions to financial markets. In Q3, attention shifted from stocks to bonds as concerns developed about rising debt levels in major economies. Across developed markets, government bond yields reached their highest levels in well over a decade bringing the mark-the-market … [Read more...] about Rethinking Asset Allocation: What do higher bond yields mean for asset allocation?
In one year’s time, Americans will head back to the polls to elect their president for the next four years. … [Read more...] about US election countdown: what investors need to know