European Union (EU) President Jean-Claude Juncker leaves his post in October, after five years in the role. At the start of his term, we wrote about Mr Juncker’s key priorities in his first 100 days, encouraging him to be bold on political, economic and social issues. Five years later… well, not much has been done to address the malaises that afflict the world’s largest trading … [Read more...] about A manifesto for Europe
Economic
Will there be a US recession in the next 12 months?
After a long period of relative calm, investors have faced more volatile markets in recent months. In Q4 last year, the S&P 500 came within 63 basis points of a technical bear market, dropping -19.37% from a high of 2,930 in September to a Christmas Eve low of 2,351. Risk assets have since recovered ground, but with volatility likely to remain higher in 2019 and global … [Read more...] about Will there be a US recession in the next 12 months?
Will the “Year of the Pig” be a prosperous one for China?
In the “Year of the Pig”, China will likely continue grappling with slower growth, a mountain of debt and a trade war with the US. But according to Chinese legend, the pig is a sign of good fortune – which is consistent with our long-term view of China’s economic potential. Fattened up on debt and penned in by trade? We expect China may deliver slower growth in the near … [Read more...] about Will the “Year of the Pig” be a prosperous one for China?
Tackle inequality by transforming the tax system
There is no easy solution to the problem of rising economic inequality, but we may be able to address it with a more enlightened tax system – one that maintains incentives for work and investment while improving economic efficiency. … [Read more...] about Tackle inequality by transforming the tax system
Economic outlook for Ireland in 2019
The official forecasting agencies such as the IMF and the OECD are expecting 2019 to be another reasonable year for the global economy, but growth is expected to ease somewhat and the risks are correctly deemed to have been heightened considerably. The key global risk factors in 2019 are likely to include: Growth in the US, UK and Euro Zone is likely to continue to … [Read more...] about Economic outlook for Ireland in 2019
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