Economic

Intellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarise or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase “we are all Keynesians now.” John Maynard Keynes, one of the most famous economists of all time, supported deficit spending and government manipulation of economic activity. … [Read more...] about We Are All Keynesians

Normally when we write about public policy – monetary policy, taxes, spending, trade, and regulations – we mainly focus on what we think policymakers will do and the likely effects on the economy or the financial markets. For example, we now think the Fed is on a path to raise rates gradually and persistently throughout 2022, with some possibility of a rate hike of a half a … [Read more...] about What the Fed “should” do

Over the past few months, it has seemed like economists have been in a race with interest rate markets to see who can be fastest to change their monetary policy outlook. As interest rates go up and central banks indicate that indeed they will accelerate the pace of monetary tightening, predictions of a recession are starting to make a comeback. With the U.S. Federal Reserve … [Read more...] about Reports of a looming recession may be exaggerated

Neville Chamberlain famously dismissed the notion that Britain should intervene to defend Czechoslovakia from Nazi Germany, saying that the resulting tensions were a "quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing". The Ukraine may be even further away but that won’t stop Russia’s invasion from having a profound on economic activity in Ireland. We must … [Read more...] about The Ukraine war and the wider economic impacts

The Western sanctions response to Russia has been swift. We assess the implications for its economy and contrast with the experience of Iran.Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world following its illegal invasion of Ukraine, which has brought misery to millions. More than 2,000 additional Western sanctions have been brought in against a broad range of … [Read more...] about Is Russia the new Iran as a result of sanctions?