In late 2018, friends forced me to watch the movie ‘Crazy Rich Asians’. Not my genre of choice. Many friends and acquaintances who had never visited Singapore gushed about the pristine, manicured and glitzy playground for the ultra-wealthy. I tried to erase their misguided notions, citing anecdotes, quoting statistics and describing on-the-ground realities. I argued my case … [Read more...] about The Shine on Singapore
Wholesale gas prices surged in the summer of 2022, leading to dire predictions of blackouts, rationing, and people freezing in their homes. Since then, prices have retraced as it has become clear that most European countries have largely succeeded in filling their gas storage facilities ahead of the winter. It would be a mistake to assume the energy crisis is over though—in … [Read more...] about The Energy Crisis Is Only Just Beginning
At over 4% of GDP, the US international borrowing requirement remains significant. Many observers attribute the imbalance to a lack of US savings but then find it hard to explain why the return on US capital is has not risen so as to encourage higher saving domestically. In fact, the return on US capital has fallen significantly in recent decades, having peaked in the early … [Read more...] about Global ‘Savings Glut’ continues to drive down the return on capital….
Many central banks have begun introducing, or are at least discussing, quantitative tightening (QT) measures. Judging from their public communications, central banks intend these policies to run largely in the background and contribute little to active policy tightening. I believe their impact could be much greater than this, however—potentially sharpening bond market … [Read more...] about Do not underestimate the impact of quantitative tightening
In 2022, the Federal Reserve (Fed) initiated a battle against the highest inflation experienced in the United States in a generation, rapidly increasing interest rates in an effort to slow the economy. As we look ahead to 2023, recession has gone from a distantly possible scenario to the most probable one, and the potential Fed pivot many equity investors are hoping for is … [Read more...] about 2023 US economic outlook: Recession, the path of least resistance