Fixed Interest

More than two months have passed since the U.S. and Israel began their aerial strikes on Iran, and the effects of the conflict have reverberated around the world. The Strait of Hormuz, the key artery through which a fifth of global oil output flows, has mostly remained shut, pushing up oil prices and bringing inflation concerns to the fore. Although diplomatic efforts have … [Read more...] about Iran war opens up asymmetric opportunities in bond markets

The state of the world doesn’t change just because the calendar year does. Hence, my view on fixed income markets at the beginning of 2026 remains consistent with my perspective from 2025: I continue to expect long-maturity, high-quality government bond yields to rise substantially. Here are five key components of my overall forecast for this year: More yield curve … [Read more...] about Yields poised to increase as global competition for capital endures

On 30 January, after a lengthy process, the Trump administration finally announced its intention to nominate Kevin Warsh for the role of Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Warsh will now need to be confirmed by the Senate. Much has already been written about what Warsh may or may not think. Our view is that some of the knee-jerk assumptions may prove incorrect and that there … [Read more...] about What will bond markets think of the new Fed chair?

2025 has been a year of differentiation in bond markets, with very large divergences in yield moves, both between geographies and at different maturities of the curve. We expect this to continue as we head into 2026. Why? Simply because growth, labour market and inflation outlooks are desynchronised by country, and major central banks are at different stages of their policy … [Read more...] about Desynchronised cycles and attractive opportunities for global bonds

Government debt levels have surged across advanced economies, and they’re now a hot topic in politics and financial markets alike. For investors, the key question is what this means for their portfolios, in terms of both risks and opportunities. We answer some of the most pressing questions. Why is government debt back in the spotlight? After the Global Financial Crisis … [Read more...] about Counting the cost: Why rising government debts matter for investors