Global growth is approaching an inflection point; either the slowdown becomes entrenched and leads to a recession, or the cycle gets extended as interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus start to take effect. What does this mean for the inflation outlook? This was a key discussion point during our latest policy meetings with the investment team debating the risk that price … [Read more...] about Should investors continue to ignore inflation?
As the ETF market continues to grow, investors are questioning how secure their ETF holdings are. We outline some of the key points they should consider. The rapid growth of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) market in recent years has benefitted many investors, giving them low-cost access to a range of markets. But with this growth has come greater scrutiny. As the variety of … [Read more...] about What are structural risks with ETFs?
Economic indicators suggest a global recession is unlikely, and any resolution of the China-US trade war could provide further relief. However the author believes the UK could be moving closer to recession territory. With Brexit looming and all its attendant uncertainty, recession could be a very real possibility for the UK. Indeed declining domestic GDP and large-scale … [Read more...] about How likely is a global recession?
Do central banks have any ammunition left to ward off the next recession or economic crisis? Rate cuts have long been the conventional tool for fighting off downturns, but interest rates globally are already in low or even negative territory. Indeed, the US Federal Reserve recently cut its benchmark rate not because the US economy is doing poorly, but as an “insurance” measure … [Read more...] about Are we running out of policy options for the next crisis?
The stock market has had a flyer in 2019. This has been the best years since 1987 and proves that there is still some resilience and optimism in the markets after an extremely volatile year in 2018. Even with the recent volatility, in euro terms, the S&P500 is up 22% year to date, with the Eurostoxx up 15.95%. There was a rush to sell back in the last quarter of 2018 as … [Read more...] about Market timing and resisting our inner pessimist