In spite of some dire predictions at the start of the pandemic, the Covid-led recession has been the shortest in US history. It lasted just two months, compared with 18 months for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) or an astonishing 43 months for the Great Depression. This speedy recovery is welcome but suggests we may be further along in the business cycle than in a ‘normal’ … [Read more...] about A very different US business cycle
The world economy is set for its fastest year of growth in the 21st century this year, according to our latest forecasts. We now think global GDP is set to expand by 5.9% in 2021, having upgraded our previous forecast of 5.3%. As lockdowns ease, the service sector - which includes businesses such as restaurants and hotels - is driving the recovery in economic growth. … [Read more...] about Could global growth this year be the fastest this century?
The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is that the massive government “stimulus” checks have put the economy in a strange position, where retail sales are far above where they would be if … [Read more...] about Unsustainable
It has been a traumatic twelve months or so for the global economy with the Covid-19 pandemic wreaking havoc in more ways than one, with millions paying the ultimate price, with their lives, and millions more losing their jobs as a result of prolonged lockdowns. We are still none the wiser as to how this will all play out in the end, but the rollout of vaccines combined with … [Read more...] about Irish economy – a case of more darkness than light
China recently unveiled its 14th five-year plan (FYP) to guide the country’s economic development over the coming five years, along with the blueprint for a long-term strategy that outlines its vision for 2035. Overall, we think the new long-term plan should imply a stable outlook for China, with diverse potential opportunities for investors across different sectors. China’s … [Read more...] about What China’s 14th Five‑Year Plan Means for Investors