In one year’s time, Americans will head back to the polls to elect their president for the next four years. … [Read more...] about US election countdown: what investors need to know
Economic
Outlook for the Irish and Global economy
The world economy has performed better this year than generally anticipated at the beginning of 2023, though the upturn has been modest and significant downside risks remain. The fall in energy prices in the first half of the year has clearly helped to lower headline inflation rates across the globe, thereby easing the pressure on consumers to some degree. The outlook has also … [Read more...] about Outlook for the Irish and Global economy
The fairy tale of a soft landing
Early in 2023, the consensus view was that a global recession was coming later in 2023. But as the year has matured, the consensus outlook has completely shifted. A soft landing—or even no landing—is now the consensus. What is remarkable is how strong the consensus has become. The consensus is, indeed, so consensus! I think differently. A soft landing is merely a convenient … [Read more...] about The fairy tale of a soft landing
Fed keeps rates steady, but expects policy to be tighter for longer
As expected the US Federal Reserve (Fed) chose not to raise interest rates at its September meeting and left the Federal funds policy rate at 5.25% to 5.50%.The focus was on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) projections for the economy and interest rates, particularly the widely followed “dot plot” of individual members Fed fund projections. As Chair Powell made … [Read more...] about Fed keeps rates steady, but expects policy to be tighter for longer
The structural shift that wasn’t
I have long been arguing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to keep interest rates higher for longer, and markets seem to be coming around to the idea. I also remain convinced that when the Fed eases policy, interest rates will not come down as much as most people think, for two reasons: First, because the equilibrium real interest rate is higher than what the Fed and a … [Read more...] about The structural shift that wasn’t