Economic

The world economy has performed better this year than generally anticipated at the beginning of 2023, though the upturn has been modest and significant downside risks remain. The fall in energy prices in the first half of the year has clearly helped to lower headline inflation rates across the globe, thereby easing the pressure on consumers to some degree. The outlook has also … [Read more...] about Outlook for the Irish and Global economy

Early in 2023, the consensus view was that a global recession was coming later in 2023. But as the year has matured, the consensus outlook has completely shifted. A soft landing—or even no landing—is now the consensus. What is remarkable is how strong the consensus has become. The consensus is, indeed, so consensus! I think differently. A soft landing is merely a convenient … [Read more...] about The fairy tale of a soft landing

As expected the US Federal Reserve (Fed) chose not to raise interest rates at its September meeting and left the Federal funds policy rate at 5.25% to 5.50%.The focus was on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) projections for the economy and interest rates, particularly the widely followed “dot plot” of individual members Fed fund projections. As Chair Powell made … [Read more...] about Fed keeps rates steady, but expects policy to be tighter for longer